Those looking to drive a wooden stake into cinema love to trot out attendance figures which show that movie-going in North America has fallen from 1.58 billion in 2002 to 1.24 billion in 2019. Increasingly, the success or failure of Hollywood movies come not from Pittsburgh and Peoria but Shanghai and Seoul. As director Christopher Nolan told The Hollywood Reporter, “some of our industry’s biggest filmmakers and most important movie stars went to bed the night before thinking they were working for the greatest movie studio and woke up to find out they were working for the worst streaming service.”. Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow? The movie business is perennially "dying" from something; but the coronavirus threat to theaters is real. No one who appreciates movies wants to see an amazing orchestrated film on there stinky VIZIO television. Really? They not only enjoy company; they positively hunger for contact with family, friends, and even strangers. I have over 20 years of experience in the entertainment business and am the Founder and CEO of Scout 53 Entertainment Consulting, which provides global entertainment business analysis, content distribution and revenue generation opportunities for cinemas, producers and in-theatre tech entities. Cineworld Group, the owner of Regal Cinemas, will suspend operations at all of its theaters in the United States and the United Kingdom beginning on … In 2019, Disney’s box office gross more than doubled its next largest competitor, Warners. They can’t die. Here's how. For every disappointing release such as the recent box office duds The Turning or Underwater, which might have been able to earn more than their domestic box office totals via the streaming route, there’s a Knives Out or even Bad Boys For Life which have significantly outperformed expectations. We've got a young baby at home and wanted some alone time. WhatsApp. To put it in perspective, automobile sales in the U.S. has fallen from 7.8 million in 2007 to 4.7 million in 2019. After five months of pandemic-forced closure, the big movie theater chains reopened in roughly 68 percent of the United States by Labor Day weekend, in large part … June 3, 2020. Listen and subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Stitcher | RSS | How To If you want to be the first to watch “Dune,” “Godzilla vs. Kong” or the new “Matrix” movie this year (yes, there’s a fourth one) — you won’t have to line up at a movie theater. The best way to classify box office revenue trends over the last 20 years is by using the phrase, “consistently inconsistent”. NEWS ANALYSIS — Wedbush Securities media analyst Michael Pachter remains bearish on the movie theater business, arguing exhibitors’ aggressive plans to re-open screens during a lull in the coronavirus pandemic is wishful thinking. What they fail to mention is that 1.24 billion is actually higher than years like 1995 (1.22 billion) and 1980 (1.02 billion). Global Box Office and Global Attendance Hit All-Time Highs in 2019. The majority of people are finding more value in streaming services like Netflix, Amazon Fire Stick and Amazon Instant Video because they’re cheaper in the long run, easier, and more convenient. Despite a slew of superhero sequels and fanboy comic book movies hitting theaters, the number of frequent young moviegoers declined last year, according to the industry’s latest figures. However in 2020 the studio doesn’t have an Avengers movie, a Pixar sequel or a Star Wars entry. Movie theater attendance plunged in 2014, hitting numbers that haven't been this low since 1995. It’s those who look beyond the clickbait headlines who’ll see the real story. People walk outside a closed AMC movie theater on March 17, 2020 in Santa Monica, California. A view outside Cinemas 1, 2 & 3 movie theater during the coronavirus pandemic on May 18, 2020 in New York City. was trying to drag Hollywood into the 21st century, but now he's at odds with the theaters and filmmakers he needs on his side. Movie theaters might start opening up as soon as mid-June. That’s because Jason Kilar, the C.E.O. Everything you hear is that the industry is a dying breed,’” Fykes says, but Wright insisted that a theater could be a community hub. Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow?. This question has been around for a few years now. Now most in the industry are looking at another possible down year in 2020, perhaps by as much as 5-6% from a box office standpoint. The Threat of the Collapse of “Windows” Seems to Be Subsiding. The studios now conspire to ensure release windows are maintained. Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow? AMC Theatres has the newest movies near you They need to stop competing on "convenience" and start focusing on "experience." No one is going to the movies anymore, everyone is staying home and binge watching Disney+, Netflix, Amazon, HBO Max, Peacock, and the other 641 streaming channels. Not at this moment. Studios are realizing that artistic success and box office success can co-exist. In this episode of “Sway,” Kara Swisher questions Mr. Kilar on whether he just delivered the final death blow to struggling theaters, how he’ll make good with Hollywood’s top talent, and what films will look like when — as Mr. Kilar predicts — blockbuster budgets surpass a billion dollars. I’m not sure too many industry insiders outside of the marketing department at Sony would have predicted the movie to be quite this strong and setting records as January closes. Is it dying? What this means for cinema chains is that their capital expenditures should be a bit more reasonable in 2020 and beyond. Movie Theaters Are Dying. Box office figures courtesy of Comscore, Statista, and Box Office Mojo, I have over 20 years of experience in the entertainment business and am the Founder and CEO of Scout 53 Entertainment Consulting, which provides global entertainment. Kong” or the new “Matrix” movie this year (yes, there’s a fourth one) — you won’t have to line up at a movie theater. Cinema is dying. So to recap, yes, it does appear on paper at least that 2020 might be another down year at the box office. This is not sustainable. The 800 Pound Gorilla Loses Some Weight in 2020. The WarnerMedia C.E.O. Thus, any sweeping pronouncements about the potential for a dismal 2020 in movie theaters made this early in the year should be tempered with the understanding that there are many variables in the mix and many surprises yet to come.”. Certainly, studios are still concentrating on tentpoles but this year’s Best Picture Oscar nominees show that they can also still make quality films. In my column from December which looked at the 20 biggest films of 2020 I projected that 7 of the top 20 films for the year would come from Disney while Warners would have 5 and studios such as Sony—which is off to a flying start with Bad Boys For Life—and Paramount, yes even Paramount, would have strong years as well. That is, at least until the next big thing comes along. Five of the nine Best Picture nominees come from major studios and this year’s slate looks to have at least a dozen major studio releases which could figure into awards consideration for 2021. To further the point, it’s worth noting that while 2019 box office was down 4.2% in North America, it was up 7.2% in 2018, down 2.6% in 2017 and, that’s right, up 2.7% in 2016. Attention Congress: The Movies Are Dying Again, For Real – Deadline 10 Dec 2020 12:00, Headline News. Movie theater executives and filmmakers are reeling. I don’t think they’re dying. Mihir Kumar Jha - December 10, 2020. Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow? of WarnerMedia, announced last week that the full slate of Warner Bros. films will be simultaneously released in theaters and on the company’s streaming service, HBO Max. The WarnerMedia C.E.O. That’s because Jason Kilar, the C.E.O. Projected to possibly, and I stress the word possibly, hit the $100 million mark, Bad Boys For Life began 2020 by flying out of the gate to the tune of a $73 million domestic opening weekend and has now officially become the highest grossing non-expansion January release in history. All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. If those producers had taken the Netflix money and run there’s no chance they would have been able to achieve an ROI approaching what they have achieved on a global box office basis. Special thanks to Renan Borelli, Liriel Higa and Kathy Tu. 0. Once a 50/50 split between domestic and international, worldwide box office now skews 70/30 with 71% of global box office revenue in 2019 coming from overseas territories. The last 10-15 years have seen the lion’s share of Oscar nominated Best Picture titles come from independent studios such as Fox Searchlight, Sony Classics, and Annapurna as major studios decided to sit the Oscars out in favor of tentpole releases. If you want to be the first to watch “Dune,” “Godzilla vs. Kong” or the new “Matrix” movie this year (yes, there’s a fourth one) — you won’t have to line up at a movie theater… Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow? I bet you haven’t read many of those articles, have you? Movie Theaters Are Dying. Movie Theaters Are Dying. Not bad for an industry under siege from deep pocketed conglomerates like Netflix, Amazon and Apple, and a media more interested in provocative headlines than in-depth analyses. So, going to the movie theater to see Wonder Woman would not be the cleanest, best idea. To answer the above question, no, cinema is not dying. For those happy to dabble in morally grey areas, torrents or free film websites are always an option, too – but should always be avoided. That’s going to be more complicated than it sounds. If you’re one of the culprits who is regularly streaming movies online alongside thousands of u… COVID-19 has spread to most … For movie theatres to survive, they'll need more than digital capabilities. That 12 year period shows a nearly 40% decline, yet few are suggesting that car buying is a “dead” endeavor. Where the North American market is largely saturated, International still has areas with significant growth potential such as Africa and the Middle East, which have been untapped until recently. Attendance Isn’t As Bad As It’s Being Made Out to Be. Movie Theaters Are Dying. I previously served as President of Distribution at Sony Pictures as well as in top-level executive positions at both STX Entertainment and Fathom Events. The coronavirus pandemic is killing movie theaters, but there's still hope. A podcast about power, hosted by Kara Swisher (@karaswisher). © 2020 Forbes Media LLC. Advertisement. Maybe. Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow? A bitterly disappointing 2017 gave way to a record-setting 2018 so it’s very difficult to turn speed bumps into trends which may or may not be there or that may change next month or even next week. Don't be scared, the movie industry isn't dying. Lifestyles of the ‘More Famous Than Rich’, Jane Goodall on Chimps, Presidents and Other Alpha Males, At-Home Covid Tests and Other Powers of a Tech Billionaire, ‘Some Version of the Apocalypse Is Inevitable’, Sarah Cooper Is Tired of Being Donald Trump, Illustration by The New York Times; photograph by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images. But let’s look at seven reasons to be optimistic about the film business in the coming year and, perhaps more importantly, in the long term. was trying to drag Hollywood into the 21st century, but now he’s at odds with the theaters … Media outlets who are strictly focused on exhibitors’ stock prices often miss the real story and cultivate a theatrical chicken-and-the-egg scenario. Home featured Movie Theaters Are Dying. To add insult to injury, the sharpest decline occurred amongst the 14-24 age group. featured; Top Stories; Movie Theaters Are Dying. Facebook. Events; Live Show Times; Arts & Crafts. Erik Gruenwedel. Sadly, it's about to suffer a mortal wound, right there in your living room. Movie theaters have at first thrived and now survived largely on false scarcity. To recap, unless there are surprise box office hits buried in what appears to be a rather sedate release schedule, 2020 may indeed end up being a challenging year for Hollywood and cinema chains. By. But it certainly is evolving, as every industry has to as it withstands challenges and seeks new opportunities in its battle to preserve its consumer base which now has a vast array of options from which to choose for their entertainment attention. Granted, Disney should still win the box office market share derby handily but it won’t be a rout in 2020 that it has been in the past few years and spreading the wealth is actually beneficial for the industry and especially so to exhibitors who rightfully worry about the effect having a behemoth-like Disney running up the score will have on their film rental and, subsequently, their bottom lines. Most people aren’t hermits. Listen and subscribe. “It would be naive to think that the movie industry does not face challenges in 2020,” Mr. Dergarabedian states, “but this is true for any given box office year.” Discussing the uniquely uncertain and divergent nature of the movie business he adds, “the only guarantee is that the inherently cyclical—and yes, unpredictable—nature of the business will continue in 2021, 2022 and beyond. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. The Covid-19 pandemic has provided powerful evidence for the irrepressibility of human sociability. Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow? In fact, box-office as a whole ended up plus 11% for the month. You may opt-out by. Opinion Movie Theaters Are Dying. I write about all aspects of the entertainment industry, EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Michigan Economic Development Corporation With Forbes Insights. The US movie theater industry has been clinging to the hope that a future blockbuster would save its devastated business. Dennis Lim director of programming, Film at Lincoln Center The takeaway from the New York Times piece is not that movies are dying, it’s that Hollywood is in … But with Regal Cinemas' … We decided to go see the 9:00 show of the latest Tarentino film. The movie theater as we know it is poised to die a slow, mostly peaceful death. The articles proclaiming that cinema is dying. Every Monday and Thursday, from New York Times Opinion. Warner Bros. has announced that it is releasing its entire 2021 slate of movies on HBO Max at the same time they will hit theaters. Articles expounding the death of movie-going almost exclusively look at domestic attendance and box office and in doing so they miss the real story. For a start, they'll need to enhance the in-theatre experience beyond what's up on the … Twitter. To answer the above question, no, cinema is not dying. However if you dig deeper into the numbers and trends you’ll see there is some hope for the movie business in its fight to ward off the battalion of doomsayers. I live in Los Angeles with my wife and 15 rescue animals. The drop in attendance in the last 12 years is only a cumulative 11%. Studios say they’re … 46 minutes ago | By . was trying to drag Hollywood into the 21st century, but now he's at odds with the theaters and filmmakers he needs on his side. Not exactly the stuff of delirious and unrestrained optimism, is it? While it may be easy, and even in vogue, to paint 2020 as a continuation of a trend toward fewer people going to the movies it would behoove those in the industry, and especially those who write about it, to blow away the sawdust and see the real picture. The movie business is infamous for weathering all storms that have blown its way over the years. 23. Lifestyles of the ‘More Famous Than Rich’. The New York Times. In their current state, most cinemas are quickly becoming a thing of the past. Mr. Kilar is only seven months into the job, and he just unleashed one of the biggest industry shake-ups in recent history. AMC Theatres is closing all their theaters nationwide in response to … Certainly, cinema chains continue to upgrade their theaters as moviegoers demand a more comfortable, multi-sensory movie-going experience but much of those upgrades have already come to fruition in the form of the auditorium retrofitting, 4D and large screen installations, and dine-in capabilities. My wife and I wanted to get out of the house. Is the movie industry evolving? There’s something about seeing a movie on the big screen that will just never get old. Yes. Articles proclaiming the death of cinema revolve around depressed stock prices while depressed stock prices are often the result of a plethora of business articles trumpeting, you guessed it, the death of cinema. BreakingProse; JewelCrafting; BeadBaby But as we know, the movie industry is unique in that it has more ups and downs than any other business. It was supposed to have been on life support when TV was introduced in the 1950s, the same with home video in the early 1980s, cable TV and home theater in the 1990s, and now streaming in the 2020s. But it is certain. Granted, 2019 was not a banner year for North American movie-going, very few dispute that fact. Each time, cinemas adapted and movie-going remained one of the most reliable, out-of-the-home entertainment options that people could enjoy. During my time at Sony, I crafted and instituted release plans for over 60 films that grossed over $100 million at the domestic box office and over 100 films that finished first at the box office on their opening weekend. One of the most knowledgeable industry insiders is Paul Dergarabedian, Senior Media Analyst for Comscore and his analysis of the movie industry in 2020 echoes the above sentiments. Cinema chains spent the last several years warding off advances from, first, the major studios, and then from streaming entities such as Netflix and Amazon in their quest to shrink the theatrical window from the current 80-90 days to 30-45 days. Movie Theaters Are Dying. Pinterest. This episode of “Sway” was produced by Nayeema Raza, Heba Elorbany, Matt Kwong and Vishakha Darbha and edited by Paula Szuchman; fact-checking by Kate Sinclair; music and sound design by Isaac Jones. Call in to a Show: Coming Soon Channels . Pachter: People Aren’t ‘Dying’ to See a Movie in Theaters. Drive-in movie theaters also cost less to operate and maintain than the regular theaters of today, according to Moore. We’ve all seen them. Yes, but again theatrical will remain the engine by which success or failure will be measured and a decision to premiere a “film” on a streaming channel instead of on thousands of cinema screens around the world will be one that is not taken lightly. Will this still be a pervasive issue as studios such as Warners and Universal debut their own streaming channels? In a year where we are somewhat devoid of major IP franchises, Hollywood will have to rely on what look like mid-range hits on paper breaking out and over-performing. Movie Theaters Are Dying. Let me tell you about my experience this weekend. Find movies near you, view show times, watch movie trailers and buy movie tickets. And there’s the real story. Stock prices for the three major North American circuits also fell. But it certainly is evolving, as every industry has to as it withstands challenges and seeks … If you want to be the first to watch “Dune,” “Godzilla vs. Kong” or the new “Matrix” movie this year (yes, there’s a fourth one) — you won’t have to line up at a movie theater. Movie Theaters Aren’t Dying—They’re Being Murdered The Covid-19 pandemic is providing a perfect cover for media giants bent on replacing theatrical movie going with streaming. But is cinema really dying? The windows will continue to shrink and one day will go away entirely. The WarnerMedia C.E.O. Attendance fell 8%, continuing a decade-long trend. Are movie theaters going away? Of delirious and unrestrained optimism, is it wanted some alone time get! % decline, yet few are suggesting that car buying is a “ dead endeavor. Movie business is infamous for weathering all storms that have n't been this low since 1995 convenience '' and focusing... 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